The country’s Finance chief has assured President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. that the peso will be bolstered before the end of 2022, as hard-earned money from overseas Filipino workers will surely pour in during Christmas.
During the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Finance Ministers’ meeting on Friday in Bangkok, Thailand, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno said between now and year-end, the Philippines expects $15.8 billion in inflows from overseas Filipinos’ remittances and receipts from the business process outsourcing industry.
“It can (definitely) use $10 billion of that to defend the peso. Dollar reserves, which have fallen more than 12 percent this year, remain robust at about $95 billion,” according to Diokno.
On Thursday, the peso closed at 58.94:$1, a day after the latest balance of payments deficit data was reportedly at its widest in four years, and gross international reserves declined to new two-year lows.
Diokno’s statements were made even as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. already gave his marching order to the economic team to do whatever it takes to prevent the peso from breaching P60.
“We are willing to spend some more just to defend it. Let’s not worry about drawing down reserves. That’s the reason why we’re building up our buffers — for hard times,” Diokno explained.
Diokno expects the Philippine peso to ease up to a P55 level.
The Finance chief, meanwhile, said that the governing Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Monetary Board will probably consider an additional 100 basis points of policy rate hikes at its last two meetings for 2022 following the rise of the key rate this year, the highest in two decades.
The BSP has already increased its key rate by 225 basis points this year, among the steepest moves in the region.
“Taking the benchmark rate to 5.25 percent by year-end from the current 4.25 percent is good enough but not the only measure. The economy can withstand tightened financial conditions and GDP (gross domestic product) is expected to expand at the low end of its target, at 6.5 percent this year, which is not bad,” Diokno said.
Diokno foresees inflation to post 5.6 on average this year and 4.1 percent next year, both above the BSP’s two to four percent target.
“Price gains should cool to 3 percent by 2024. The government is trying to slow price increases whenever possible, like in transport fares and even wages,” he added.
And to further bolster the Philippine currency, Diokno said the government is contemplating selling dollar-denominated bonds targeting overseas Filipinos.
“The Philippines plans to market the debt nationwide in December and aims to capture around 10 percent of remittances or at least $3 billion. If you’re buying dollars for no reason at all, I think that’s speculation,” the Finance chief said.