The Philippines agreed on Thursday to give the United States access to four more military bases amid fears Taiwan could serve as a flashpoint of regional, if not global, conflict with China’s avowed intent to retake the self-governing territory.
This as US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III met with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his Filipino counterpart, Secretary Carlito Galvez, to expand the two nations’ Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement or EDCA.
Philippine and US officials, however, only obliquely referred to China in relation to EDCA. Austin pledged to Marcos US assistance in modernizing the Philippine military.
“We stand ready to help you in any way we can,” Austin told Mr. Marcos. “Our alliance makes both our democracies more secure and helps uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
In response, the President said: “I have always said, it seems to me, the future of the Philippines and, for that matter, the Asia-Pacific will always have to involve the United States.”
A US Air Force general has warned that conflict with China could happen as early as 2025 following strong statements by Chinese President Xi Jinping last October about Beijing retaking Taiwan peacefully or by force if need be.
The Embassy of China in Manila came up with a scathing statement on Austin’s visit, saying: “The United States, out of its self interests and zero-sum game mentality, continues to step up military posturing in this region.”
“Its actions escalate regional tension and undermine regional peace and stability. During his visit, US Secretary of Defense (Austin) smeared China on the issue of South China Sea to advance the anti-China political agenda of the US,” the embassy added.
Analysts have warned that both the Philippines and Australia will invariably be dragged into a conflict between China and Taiwan if the US makes good on its pledge to come to the latter’s aid militarily in the event of a Beijing invasion.
Australia has a military deal with the United States similar to what the latter has with the Philippines.
Territorial disputes
Manila and Beijing have their own conflicting territorial claims in overlapping bodies of water, called the West Philippine Sea or South China Sea depending on which country was referring to it.
Mr. Marcos has vowed never to cede an inch of Philippine territory to China although he tried to strike healthy bilateral relations with Beijing which he visited from 3 to 5 January.
US President Joe Biden, in a September 2022 CBS 60 Minutes interview, explicitly stated that American forces would defend Taiwan in the event Beijing invades, earning a sharp rebuke from China.
Asked whether he’d commit US forces to the defense of Taiwan, Biden replied: “Yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack.”
Taiwan, for its part, has assumed a de facto war footing, extending mandatory military service for its citizens from four months to one year.
Philippine and US defense officials on Thursday made general statements referring to regional security vis-a-vis EDCA.
Galvez said the four new EDCA sites would be chosen based on their climate change impact and suitability as jump-off points for humanitarian missions.
‘Taiwan contingency’
Greg Wyatt of the PSA Philippines Consultancy, however, hinted that the new EDCA sites would have far less to do with climate change or the like.
“Looking at the location of the proposed sites, it seems pretty clear that these sites are in relation to a Taiwan contingency,” Wyatt said.
Most of the new bases will be on the main island of Luzon, the Philippine landmass closest to Taiwan, according to sources.
Reportedly, the fourth site will be on the western island of Palawan, facing the Spratlys Islands in the West Philippine Sea being contested and parts of which are occupied by Chinese forces.
During Austin’s Manila visit, the US announced the allocation of over $82 million for infrastructure investments at five existing EDCA sites in the Philippines.
Noticeably, all five sites to receive fresh EDCA funding are air bases, namely, the Antonio Bautista Air Base in Palawan, Basa Air Base in Pampanga, Fort Magsaysay Airfield in Nueva Ecija, Lumbia Airport in Cagayan de Oro City and Benito Ebuen Air Base in Mactan, Cebu.
In October 2022, a report by award-winning documentary production firm Four Corners revealed that the United States was preparing to deploy up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to northern Australia in what was seen as the US fleshing out Biden’s words to defend Taiwan.
B-52 base
Australia’s Tindal Air Base, south of Darwin, has been the recipient of US funding to allow it to serve the giant B-52 bombers that had been in service since 1952. The bombers had figured in the US projection of power like during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 when American nuclear forces were put on DEFCON 2.
Among the “squadron operations facility” being built at Tindal is parking for six B-52s.
Four Corners, citing Center for New American Security analyst Becca Wasser, said stationing B-52s in northern Australia is a warning to China not to push through with an attack on Taiwan.
“The ability to deploy US Air Force bombers to Australia sends a strong message to adversaries about our ability to project lethal air power,” it quoted a US Air Force general as saying.
Still, the $82 million to be invested in the five existing EDCA sites in the Philippines is being eyed to support economic growth and job creation within local communities, according to official defense statements.
“I just want to be clear that we’re not seeking permanent basing here in the Philippines. It’s about providing access to increase training opportunities with our partners and our allies here. It’s about having the capability to respond to humanitarian system issues and disaster relief,” Austin said.
Even before Biden’s 60 Minute interview, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August 2022 raised tensions unseen in three decades in the Taiwan Strait.
Beijing canceled eight official military dialogues with the United States, while it set off massive air and naval exercises, as well as ballistic missile launches on the edges of Taiwan’s territory.
Addressing the 20th Communist Party Congress last October, Xi, according to a report by CNN International, drew the “loudest and longest applause from the nearly 2,300 handpicked delegates” when he talked about getting back Taiwan.
Xi said he’d “strive for peaceful reunification” but that “we will never promise to renounce the use of force and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary.”
Taiwan was where the nationalist Kuomintang government of Chiang Kai Shek fled after it was overthrown by Mao Zedong’s Communist Party in 1949. Since then, Beijing has maintained Taiwan to be a part of China.
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