President Bongbong Marcos or PBBM must be urgently warned that if there is a US-China war in two brewing flashpoints — the West Philippine Sea and the Taiwan Straits. The four new EDCA US bases (still secret and now totaling nine as of this writing) may be a target of China, with possible massive collateral damage to Filipinos near the bases. It is better if the new EDCA bases were put on hold, subject to further study and diplomatic dialogue. It is not too late. There are creative ways for PBBM to contain the situation.
It is a huge geopolitical blunder to lean towards the US or China. As previously mentioned here, PBBM’s dilemma is to be neutral in a war of giants is almost impossible. We are caught in a tug-of-war of giants, and we are the rope.
The Philippine situation is dangerously a potential PROXY WAR, similar to Syria and Afghanistan, where there were massive civilian casualties due to indiscriminate bombings by both US and Russian forces. In a proxy war, the giants do not care about collateral damage, as long as their own casualties are kept to a minimum. In such bombing sorties, their only risks are the loss of pilots and expensive but replaceable weapons. Civilians bear the brunt of proxy wars.
The ongoing brinkmanship between US carriers in the WPS and Chinese warplanes in the Taiwan Straits is heating up toward a direct confrontation, which analysts predict could happen anytime now without warning. This is why the White House and the Pentagon are urgently pushing the four new EDCA bases, preparing for that confrontation. This is why the four new EDCA bases are still a secret as of this writing because the US knows they may be a target of Chinese response. The government must identify these new EDCA bases to warn the communities around them to prepare. The Bagong Alyansang MakabayanT is demanding that the government reveals these secret sites.
Take this scenario. The US installs killer drones in an EDCA base, which are easy to install and hide since they are small. The drones hit a Chinese naval facility or a warplane in the WPS or the Taiwan Straits, whether by accident or as planned. China launches a massive retaliation against not one but, possibly, all four new EDCA bases. The hundreds of thousands of residents near these bases become simply collateral damage.
The new EDCA bases may also eventually house hypersonic missiles which may put China in a panic. Furthermore, there are new deadly secret weapons out there still untested by both sides, such as the Electro-Magnetic Pulse bombs that can silently explode and paralyze all electronic signals in each area. The looming US-China naval war is utterly unpredictable.
But there are creative strategies for the Philippines. One suggestion is for PBBM to tell China to withdraw from Philippine territory in the WPS in return for the deferment of the four new EDCA bases. This is a diplomatic long shot, but it is possible if PBBM can deal with the Americans using the logic of massive collateral damage. PBBM can talk to Biden by phone.
Under EDCA, the bases are supposedly jointly run by the US and the Philippines, but that is on paper, only to appease protests against infringement on Philippine sovereignty. In truth, the bases will be run by the US and they can clandestinely do anything they want, such as set up hypersonic missiles and direct real-time links with the Pentagon, which they had done before during the Subic-Clark era.
Something is brewing in the White House and the Pentagon with their quiet urgency to forge new EDCA bases ASAP. The US successfully forged the new EDCA bases agreement within days after the quiet visit of US Defense Chief Lloyd Austin. The US goal is to enhance its presence in the two flash points — WPS and the Taiwan Straits — two birds with one stone. This may be a bad strategy if it may induce a war on two fronts that the US is not prepared to wage.