The Philippines is earning plaudits for the Marcos administration’s tough balancing act of asserting its territorial claim on the West Philippine Sea while preventing the tense situation with China from escalating.
President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has made it his policy to improve relations with the United States that were strained under the last administration, while continuing to engage with China but recognizing the need to respect each country’s position.
Sydney-based think tank Lowy Institute cited recent moves by the country that showed it will not back down from China’s assertiveness, but neither will it take actions to provoke its anger.
“While Beijing attempts to tighten its grip on the region with a new ten-dash line, a multi-billion dollar military modernization drive is underway in the Philippines,” a Lowy report said.
It said many analysts believe that Manila’s pronouncements about confrontation are “gestures” rather than real attempts to challenge China. An open conflict would have tremendous geopolitical and economic costs for the Philippines.
“Beijing remains Manila’s top trade partner and import supplier,” Lowy said.
It cited instances in which the Philippines stepped back from adding fuel to the fire.
“The Philippines’ decision to skip last month’s joint military exercise with the United States, Australia and Japan in the South China Sea is seen as a way of avoiding conflict with China,” it noted.
It said that Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro had refused to cooperate with Taiwan on security issues, which has been viewed as the country’s continued adherence to the One-China policy.
“Despite his harsh remarks on Beijing, some Chinese international relations experts are optimistic about the appointment of Teodoro Locsin as Manila’s Special Envoy to China as he has not only favored cooperation with Beijing but has been critical of the West,” it added.
Lowy said Locsin’s appointment is read as Manila’s attempt to stabilize ties with Beijing, adding that “others are disappointed with the choice.”
This recognition from independent observers indicates the Marcos administration is skillfully threading a thin line to show it is insisting on its sovereign stake while pushing back against Beijing.
Manila’s resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre landing craft, for instance, which is considered the eye of the storm in the current friction, has been a pure play by Philippine forces.
Manila’s supply and coast guard ships are constantly in a game of tag with huge Chinese Coast Guard vessels which try to frustrate the provision of supplies to the platoon of Marines guarding the outpost.
Last month, China’s coast guard water-cannoned a Navy supply boat. Beijing’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs justified this as “safeguarding our sovereignty in accordance with law” and criticized Manila for “ignoring China’s goodwill and sincerity.”
China then demanded the Philippines remove the beached Sierra Madre.
Lowy reported that “Manila has further aggravated Beijing by describing the danger of conflict in the Taiwan Strait as a ‘major security concern,’ in its newly published National Security Policy.”
It quoted various state mouthpieces in China as having criticized former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s condemnation of the ten-dash line and his claim that Manila “wouldn’t resist a fight” for its maritime rights.
China has always referred to the Duterte period as when an ideal engagement had existed with the Philippines.
Duterte initially exerted efforts to win the trust of the Chinese but had always indicated to President Xi Jinping that he would have to raise at some point the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration that favored the Philippines.
China continues to follow its playbook that the Philippines is being manipulated by the US to take bold actions in the West Philippine Sea conflict.
Beijing glosses over the fact that when the late President Noynoy Aquino bungled the handling of the 2012 faceoff with China, it was the US that abandoned the Philippines as it did nothing to stop the reclamation of features in the disputed area.
Similarly, China has advocated dialogue but, thus far, nothing has come of it, even after the Philippines gave way to its wishes over the past six and more years.