It is hard, even next to impossible, to remain neutral in our global war-prone situation today. This article is an attempt, as much as possible, to present a neutral geopolitical analysis. Events are cited here not to support one side or the other but as facts with deep geopolitical implications.
As mentioned often in this column, the polarization of nations into two opposing sides always precedes a world war. The formation of the Allies and the Axis was the precursor for both World Wars I and II. Today, rapid polarization in both economic and military areas is happening at a dizzying pace — a preview of World War III which will be five- to ten-fold as big and intense as the previous world wars due to the advent of new sophisticated weapons that make the old weapons obsolete. All of a sudden, invincible carrier fleets will be vulnerable to multiple hypersonic missile attacks. Powerful lasers can now take out satellites, paralyzing entire military and commercial systems. There are dozens of game-changers, some of them still secret.
The rise of NATO-Plus has increased the chances of World War III. Right now, it is germinating rapidly.
The US Congress wants India in NATO-Plus. India is what Ukraine is to Russia, namely, the enemy in the backyard, threatening the nation’s “existential existence.” India, the ancient arch-enemy of China, welcomes this move. It will be effortless for the US to court India into NATO-Plus. India is forging a deal with the US to buy 30 killer drones. The proximity of India to China is of extreme geopolitical concern to both US-NATO-Plus and China and even Russia.
Ironically, India is a major importer of Russian energy, which may be preempted if it joins NATO-Plus. In fact, Russia is in a predicament. It is being paid in Indian currency which is piling up unused in Indian banks, due to sanctions.
Right now, the US is taking inventory of “non-NATO allies,” whom they can court into NATO-Plus. The campaign for NATO-Plus is gathering momentum with five members as of this writing — Japan, Australia, South Korea, Israel and New Zealand. Remember that more than half of NATO’s power lies with the US. NATO-Plus is a US initiative.
China is rattled by this turn of events, warning that it would plunge the Indo-Pacific into war. This is true, but remember, this was partly in reaction to China’s earlier belligerence and aggressive moves in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
NATO-Plus will naturally intensify the ongoing cooperation between China and Russia, exchanging more armaments and high-level talks on cooperation and mutual defense protocols. China and Russia are part of a multinational bloc similar to NATO. Since early 2022, Putin and Xi have been forging “a sweeping long-term agreement that challenges the United States as a global power” (The New Yorker, Feb. 2022).
The possibility of the Philippines joining NATO-Plus cannot be discounted. The catalyst may be a US-China war in Taiwan and/or the South China Sea. If China retaliates against US killer drones emanating from the EDCA bases, this will enhance the chances of the Philippines joining NATO-Plus.
However, massive collateral damage to Filipino civilians around the EDCA bases, when push comes to shove, may derail present mutual defense agreements with the US.
To stay neutral is the dilemma of PBBM, the Philippines being the rope in a US-China tug-of-war. If he leans heavily toward the US, especially in a US-China war in Taiwan and/or the SCS, China can stop its much-needed trade with the Philippines.
On the side of economic alliances, the US is worried about the current expansion of the China-Russia-led BRICS economic bloc “which received membership applications from 19 countries ahead of a June summit, potentially expanding the group’s influence throughout the Middle East and Africa.” (Fox News, undated). Their primary goal is to destroy the US dollar.
In the interest of peace in the Asia Pacific, it is better if NATO-Plus fails because otherwise, it would result in a frenzy of purchases of deadly new state-of-the-art weapons by eager warriors that would plunge the region into war — which is happening now in Europe and the Middle East.
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