A new form of the Cold War that started in the 1950s is playing out in the West Philippine Sea or the South China Sea that the mainland has claimed as historically part of its territory.
A 2016 award of the Permanent Court of Arbitration, or PCA, invalidated the historic claim. China, however, said it does not recognize the ruling and it will only accede to bilateral discussions on the maritime conflict.
United States security officials have laid out a scenario of heightened posturing in the WPS that is being referred to as the gray zone conflict in which China’s aggressiveness is expected to heighten short of an actual armed conflict.
Geopolitical experts said the evolving military relations of the United States and the Philippines are geared toward the WPS developments.
In May 2023, new bilateral defense guidelines were issued to clarify the conditions under which American forces would come to the aid of their Philippine counterparts under the terms of the Mutual Defense Treaty.
The guidelines marked a change in American policy in the South China Sea from “scrupulous noninvolvement” to one that seems focused on deterring provocative Chinese actions in “gray zone” scenarios, according to Felix Chang, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and the chief operating officer of DecisionQ, an artificial intelligence engineering company.
He said the Philippines had long sought a clarification of America’s obligations but Washington was reluctant to give it.
The US government’s previous concern was that Manila might use the mutual defense treaty as leverage to advance its maritime and territorial claims against its neighbors in the South China Sea, potentially drawing the United States into confrontations with them, most notably China.
The recent American policy shift in the South China Sea, however, follows others that have occurred over the last decade.
The major factors that paved the way for the new bilateral defense guidelines have been Manila’s continued commitment to rebuilding its external defense capabilities and Washington’s growing perception of China as a strategic adversary.
In the event of an attack, given that the Philippines and the United States share a long-standing mutual defense treaty, American forces would be obliged to come to the country’s aid if the attack occurred in recognized Philippine territorial waters.
“But until Manila and Washington issued new bilateral defense guidelines in May 2023, it was unclear what America’s obligations would be if the attack occurred in disputed waters or against non-military Philippine government vessels, like those of its coast guard. Such circumstances were considered ‘gray-zone’ scenarios,” Chang indicated.
The newly issued bilateral defense guidelines that were hammered out during the recent state visit of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. cleared up the ambiguity.
They also marked a change in American policy in the WPS from “scrupulous noninvolvement” to one that seems focused on deterrence.
Chang indicated that for the Philippines, the change could not have come soon enough with China’s increasingly aggressive efforts to assert its sovereignty over the waters within its “nine-dash line.”
Barack Obama’s administration was the first to take a slightly firmer stance on the WPS.
Then, Chang said, American policy took on a more defiant tone under President Donald Trump, who formally rejected China’s “nine-dash line” claim.
And with relations between China and the United States deteriorating further during the early years of the Biden White House, not to mention continued Chinese assertiveness in Southeast Asia, Washington had become open to clarifying the terms of its MDT with Manila.
President Marcos visited Washington in May 2023, he was able to secure what his predecessors had not: a clarification of America’s obligations in “gray-zone” scenarios.
Chang added the main reason for Washington’s opaque posture had been Manila’s longtime neglect of its external defense capabilities.
The Philippines, which at one time fielded one of Asia’s largest and most modern armed forces, had allowed its navy to dwindle to four offshore patrol boats and its air force to mothball its last jet aircraft in 2005, he said.
President Marcos’ recent talks with President Joe Biden was all about restoring equilibrium in the disputed seas.