The following developments rapidly happened in the last few days, and the intensifying heat reveals that we may be heading towards “Defcon 4”, meaning, an imminent escalation of the Ukraine war towards a direct confrontation between Russia and US-NATO.
Event no. 1. Russia suffered heavy losses in a major Ukraine counter-offensive near the capital Kyiv, reversing the tide of the war against Russia.
Event no. 2. As a reaction, Russia 1) renewed threats of taking the nuclear option, which the US pooh-poohed as “loose rhetoric”. The EU believes it is not a bluff, and Russia may be serious about the threat. 2) Putin launched a plebiscite in four Donbas areas, condemned by the West as a “sham”; 3) Putin is recruiting 300,000 troops from the citizenry, yet to be trained, sending jitters to Ukraine and the EU.
Event no. 3. Russia unilaterally annexed the four Donbas regions, about 15 percent of Ukraine’s territory, which had a plebiscite overwhelmingly in favor of Russian annex, with angry protests from the West, saying it was a staged affair. There is a high alert in the region due to fears of a US-NATO-Ukraine offensive. Russia ignored protests from the West, resolute to defend Donbas at all costs.
Event no. 4. As a consequence, Ukraine announced it was joining NATO as a member, which it had been deferring for many years in fear of Russian retaliation. This means that US-NATO can now enter Ukraine to fulfill its mandate to defend a NATO member country from foreign aggression. This means that US-NATO can now directly engage the Russians in the war.
This means direct involvement in the war, something US-NATO was hesitant to do for fear it will evolve into a nuclear confrontation. It is not known how long it will take for Ukraine to achieve NATO member status. It has to hurdle a lot of requirements, but NATO can perhaps, if it wanted to, fast-track the application.
Event no. 5. NATO is starting to pour more weapons into Ukraine, which is actually ‘over-armed’. Ukraine is not able to use the flood of donated weapons. As a result, there have been reports of clandestine sales of these weapons to NATO-member neighbors to finance cash-strapped Ukraine.
Event no. 6. Germany and Trump accused the US of bombing portions of Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. They are now hopelessly inoperable and may not be reparable, permanently cutting off the EU from Russian gas. US warships and warplanes were seen in the area near the place where the bombing occurred, suspected of using underwater drones. The evidence included reports from Sweden to that effect. The US was accused of sabotage to force the EU to turn to the US for gas, with several attempts as far back as many years ago. US Media issued counter-accusations that Russia destroyed its own gas pipelines, which Russia said is ridiculous.
Event no. 7. An Israeli intelligence firm reports the unusual activity of Russian Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic bombers stationed at Olenya airbase in Russia’s Kolskyi Peninsula. The base is home to tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. Although this can be a false alarm due to heightened tensions, the West will perhaps not take any chances and may have its own counter-alert response.
Event no. 8. The US reports the unusual activity of Russian and Chinese warships in the Arctic region, which is the shortest path of future missiles against the US.
Event no. 9. The Financial Times reports that the European Systemic Risk Board warned that the energy crisis has put the financial situation in EU nations in a precarious situation. The warning was triggered by the Bank of England rescuing financial institutions by buying bonds.
Firstpost.com reports that “(EU) telecommunications can suffer severe disruptions in the coming months”. This implies no communication and no Internet, affecting the nations down to the grassroots level. Reuters adds that there are no existing backup systems presently. Germany, Italy, and France “have pressed the panic button”, talking with telecom operators. The batteries of the EU’s half a million telecom towers will last for just half an hour. Critical hospital services and the military are affected.
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