Energy supply is sufficient for the rest of the year, the Department of Energy said but it warned that consumers may experience power interruptions next year due to thin reserves, especially in summer months when demand is historically higher, the DoE said yesterday.
“For 2023, the situation is going to be difficult, especially in the summer months in the scenario assuming that the Ilijan plant will be unavailable. (The forecast) shows several yellow alerts and the possibility of red alerts in 2023,” Energy Secretary Raphael Perpetuo Lotilla said during the 2022 EJAP Infrastructure Forum co-presented by MPIC and PLDT.
“The capacity usually falls in May and June because of course there are hydropower plants in Luzon that are unable to deliver at this particular point,” he added.
Heavy fossil fuel reliance
Based on DoE data, the country’s year-to-date peak demand is 93 percent higher than last year. It also noted that on-grid areas remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels, while off-grid islands still depend on oil-based power plants.
Lotilla also pointed out that in the remaining months of 2022, there is still a likelihood of yellow, if not red alerts.
“If we look at the power outlook for the third and fourth quarters, taking into account the unplanned outages of power plants that significantly depleted the power supply of the grid, including the loss of the 1,200 MW from the Ilijan power plant, there will be thin reserves.
It will be sufficient but with the possibility of yellow alerts during August and October in this scenario.
“Hopefully in October, the yellow alerts are not going to be triggered,” the Energy chief explained.
According to its operator, the 1,200-megawatt gas-fired Ilijan plant is scheduled to resume operations by February next year to help ramp up supply in Luzon.